Among the broad masses of the betting community, much attention is paid to such bets as express bets. The idea is simple and compelling. In any case, it seems so at first glance to ordinary people who are not particularly accustomed to counting probabilities. The point is to combine several outcomes from various sporting events into one complex bet. If all parts enter, then the coefficients are multiplied and “money rain” is poured on the bettor.
If even only one involved outcome fails, then the entire express train will fly by. Naturally, beginners and not very reflective players with experience are overwhelmed by excitement.
I would like to put a hundred square meters lying around in my pocket and win a million. Of course, this is exaggerated, but the train of thought is something like this. The prospect of a large one-time win is, as usual, tied to a comparably large risk. Due to the lack of experience and understanding of some trends, beginners make a bunch of mistakes when drawing up multiples, which further increase the risks.
It is clear that such a state of affairs results in serious losses at a distance. Even if there are rare winnings, these amounts are consumed over time by unsuccessful attempts. In this review, we will analyze the TOP-10 important aspects that should be taken into account when working with express trains. These techniques will allow you to minimize risks, avoid mistakes and increase the effectiveness of such bets as much as possible.
1. DIE YOUR GREEDY
Express trains are different. There may be several differences:
- · The size of the final coefficient;
- · The number of included outcomes;
- · Types of rates used.
Of course, the number of elements and types of bets play a big role, and we will talk about this further. But the first level, the size of the odds, plays a key role. It is clear that the higher this indicator, the higher the profit you can get. Many beginners are fond of assembling combinations of events with a final odds of 100, 1000 or more.
- In this regard, I would like to point out two important truths. First, 100,000 rubles. you can lose not only by placing all-in with one bet, but also losing 100 express bets at 100 rubles. If the indicators are very high, hundreds, thousands, then the discharge of such a number of presses is only a matter of time.
- Secondly, one must understand the moment with probability. Winning with odds of 100, taking into account the margin, even with an objective assessment, which never happens in practice for such high values, has the probability of winning much less than 1%.
That is, in the distance, only 1 out of 100 express bets will win, and the rest will lose. Moreover, no one guarantees such a clear distribution. Winnings can occur both earlier and much later, somewhere after 200-300 attempts. That promises significant financial losses at a distance.
So the first global recommendation when thinking about playing express trains will be to pacify your own greed. Do not abuse too large quotes, since this business is already moving far from serious betting towards lotteries.
2. LIMIT THE NUMBER OF ELEMENTS
In this review, we want to bring to your attention a brief overview of four important betting areas that are of interest to beginners. The excursion will help you understand in which direction to move.
Few beginners think that not only the final odds, but also the number of outcomes included in order to reach it, play a big role in the probability of winning on a multi bet. Obviously, a multiple with a score of 10 can be obtained in many different ways.
For example, it could be a double like this:
- 3.16 * 3.17 = 10
or heterogeneous:
- 4.00 * 2.50 = 10
Of course, such large quotes are rarely used. So they usually take more outcomes:
- 1.78 * 1.78 * 1.78 * 1.78 = 10
- 1.47 6 = 10
- 1.33 5 * 1.34 3 = 10
- 1.25 * 1.26 9 = 10
The layman will look and decide that there is no difference. Everywhere the coefficient is 10 in the end. So they begin to collect whole footcloths of 20 or more elements, and the quotes of individual events do not even reach 1.10.
However, this approach is fundamentally wrong. Each coefficient in the bookmaker’s office includes a commission, a margin. Even if we make such a powerful assumption that the indicator does reflect the real probability (which is not always the case), a certain percentage of it is cut off the margin. When we place a single bet, the margin is charged once.
When we make up an express, the commission inside all components is also multiplied and gives a cumulative effect. This leads to the fact that the real probability of winning the express decreases as the number of elements in it increases. Let us prove this mathematically, and in a very simple way.
Let’s compare the probability of winning a multi bet of four events at 1.78 and six events at 1.47. Let’s find pairs of outcomes in the bookmaker’s line, with such quotes on one of the leverage so that the margin is the same:
- 1.78 – 2.17
- 1.47 – 2.92
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In both cases, the margin is 2.26-2.27%.
The real probability of an outcome for 1.78 excluding this commission is 54.94%. The probability of an outcome in 1.47 is 66.51%. We translate the probabilities into decimal fractions, dividing for this by 100%. Once the coefficients are multiplied in express trains, we can multiply the probabilities as well. Four times at 0.5494, and six times at 0.6651.
- 0.5494 4 = 0.0911
- 0.6651 6 = 0.0866
Even 4 outcomes will give 9.1%, not 10%. Well, 6 – already 8.6%. All of this is due to margin.
Even comparing 4 and 6 components, we see a significant difference. You can calculate yourself by analogy for smaller odds, where the probability of winning falls even more strikingly.
The conclusion is obvious, when assembling express trains you should try to minimize the number of components. Otherwise, the chances of winning the distance are rapidly reduced.
3. THE EASIEST OUTCOMES
An express bet means multiplying the odds, which means that the risks also multiply. We have already shown how low the real mathematical probability of winning for such constructions is. Therefore, you need to use all possible techniques to reduce risks, certainly avoid increasing them further.
The only reasonable way to reduce risks is to include the safest and most reliable types of bets in the express. There are many options in the bookmaker’s list, there are both simple and complex outcomes. If we talk about examples from football, then we would recommend considering the following types of bets for express bets:
- Double chances (1X, X2);
- Handicap (0);
- Individual total is over 0.5 or 1;
- TB (1.5) or TB (2);
- TM (3.5) or TM (3);
- Total TB Yellow Cards (3.5).
Such popular outcomes as a simple victory, both will score, TB and TM 2.5, ITB (1.5), should not be included in the express bets, since these are either difficult outcomes in themselves, or hidden express bets. For example, winning is one of three possible main outcomes.
- Individual total over 1.5 is already an express bet, which presupposes the occurrence of two simplest conditions – two goals from the team.
- The same applies to general totals. TB (2.5) is already a triple express, because you need three events, three goals.
- Both will score – also a tee. You need 2 goals, two simple outcomes, plus their distribution, one for each of the opponents.
With this approach to the selection of events for express bets, many adventurous outcomes will disappear and the chances of winning will increase. If we take the main outcomes, then those where there is coverage of two out of three outcomes. If you take totals, whether by goals, or by yellow cards or other small markets, then insure yourself by reducing the value by 0.5 or 1 from the initially predicted one.
Moreover, even more complex structures, such as:
- Time / match;
- P1 + TB (2.5);
- X2 + TM (3.5);
- P1 + OZ;
- Handicaps (-1.5) and larger.
It is not particularly recommended to consider them for single orders.
4. ADVANTAGEOUS AND ADVANCED COMPONENTS
Each bookmaker has its own set of rules according to which it accepts bets on football. Before starting the game, you must definitely familiarize yourself with them so as not to lose the bank due to an incorrect interpretation of certain points.
- As already noted, the coefficient may reflect the real probability of the outcome, or may not.
- In the setting of quotes, there may be trivial mistakes of the bookmaker, then the coefficient will be higher than it should be. These are the so-called over-the-line value bets.
- The assembly of express bets exclusively from such profitable outcomes significantly increases the final probability and the frequency of wins.
- The only problem is to learn how to correctly analyze matches, to find such profitable options in sufficient quantities.
On the other hand, the odds can be greatly underestimated as a result of deliberate manipulation by the bookmaker, or because of the “load”. Such a load comes when public opinion considers some outcome to be certain. A crowd of “popans”, hunters for “reinforced concrete” will run there and instruct a lot of money. Under this pressure, the quote on this leverage will go down, while on the opposite one it will grow. So, you shouldn’t take odds that are understated for one reason or another in express bets. Again, identifying such outcomes is available with experience.
So play smart, analyze your actions, identify and correct mistakes, and do not repeat them a hundred times in the future.
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5. DO NOT TAKE OUTPUTS ON OUTSIDERS
Almost all types of bets can be divided into three types: favorites, outsiders and neutral outcomes. It is recommended to collect express bets only from selections from favorites, or on neutral markets. Moreover, keeping in mind the previous point, the favorites should be chosen either undervalued, so-called hidden, or assessed objectively. Often the shoulder of such teams is loaded, so you shouldn’t take it.
- Neutral outcomes, for example, for total totals, are also quite relevant. But with outsiders it is better to work as single individuals.
- The thing is that there is often an edge on the underdog’s shoulders, but it usually takes some distance to convert it into profit.
- Express destroys any lost component, which is unacceptable.
Therefore, only heavily reinsured plus odds on the underdog are sometimes taken in small express bets. But such radical bets as double chances, goals from outsiders, it is better to play only in single bets, regardless of other bets.
6. GRADATION OF CONFIDENCE
The field of gambling and sports betting in particular is highly risky. Here you can quickly rise and lose all the money just as quickly.
When analyzing upcoming matches and choosing bets on them, each bettor gives his own assessment of confidence in each event. As the experience of professionals, including practicing express trains, shows, it is worth dividing events by confidence, and not lumping everything together.
Of course, you can choose 20 matches on a game day and close up an express train for everything. But on such pampering they usually put 20 rubles, no more. We’re talking about more serious express trains. It is worth introducing a gradation of 3 levels. Weed out and remove bets where the confidence level is the first, the minimum. Perhaps you will play them in single orders, at the minimum percentage per bet. However, they are not taken on express at all. Further, one or more express bets are formed from the events of the second category, and small amounts are bet there. Usually up to several hundred rubles. And only from those outcomes that fell into the highest category of confidence. You can arrange express bets for more substantial amounts. This approach will help develop principles for the distribution of outcomes on this confidence scale. This will help in the future, and not only for express trains.
7. MINIMIZE EXPRESS CROSSING
Many newcomers to betting have noticed the habit of collecting dozens of express trains from the same matches of one playing day. The big mistake is the intersection of such constructions. That is, the same matches and outcomes can be included in all at the same time, or in many combinations. This is of course no good. One failed bet, perhaps even in force majeure, with the correct forecast, will ruin all the money that was put on this pack of presses.
A smart approach is to minimize the intersections of express trains. There are even special programs and services to form the optimal distribution of outcomes for the express bets. You can do this on paper, with arrows, if of course there are up to a dozen outcomes. We have already spoken about the abuse of the number of events.
So, you can make one big express train, for all, as well as a number of express trains, which will not intersect with each other. In fact, it turns out that one minus will destroy only two express trains, one of which is just a gamble. If most of the predictions were correct, the rest of the bets will win and the bettor will make a profit on that day.
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8. EXPRESS INSURANCE
We have devoted several reviews to an analysis of the most popular football leagues in Europe, in the context of betting. However, this does not mean at all that the TOP-5 (England, Spain, Germany, Italy, France) runs out of space for football betting.
Sometimes there is a situation when the matches taken on the express do not take place in parallel, but with a certain time lag. It happens that all events have already converged, and there is one match that has not yet been played. Reasonable bettors have an idea to play it safe. And that’s really smart. When a big profit is already close, then you should not be greedy.
For example, a four-event express at 1.78. Three outcomes have already gone. Initially, it was delivered 500 rubles. Potential winnings of 5,000, or 4,500 net winnings. It would be quite reasonable to make a “fork” in another office, against the remaining outcome. There, on the back shoulder there will be a coefficient of 2.17. You have to bet so much that if you lose the express you just stay with your friends.
- 2.17 * X = X + 500
- (2.17 * X) – (1 * X) = 500
- 1.17 * X = 500
- X = 500 / 1.17 = 427.35
So we put 428 rubles. If bad luck occurs with the last event, then we do not lose anything. If the express train arrives, we get net not 4,500, but 4,072 rubles. Also more than decent. You can, of course, not immediately insure yourself, but follow the extreme play in live. This is not for everybody.
9. TIME SPACE
An attentive bettor, familiar with a wide range of options for financial strategies, knows very well that express bets in their mathematical essence are very similar to the “ladder” strategy. There they go from step to step. Constantly betting not only the starting amount, but also the winnings from previous moves. As a result, the same effect of multiplying the coefficients is obtained.
There are two significant advantages to using a ladder on a timed express train. First, they select matches one after another so that they do not overlap in time. Only after calculating one step, either the next step takes place (if you win), or a new attempt to pass the ladder starts (if you lose). This regularity encourages you to choose the most reliable one with the most confident bet from many parallel matches. Sifting out all the superfluous and choosing one of the most confident decisions, of course, has a positive effect on the passability of ladders, in comparison with express trains, where everything is often molded in order to increase the final coefficient.
Secondly, the alternate passage of the steps allows you to use such a wonderful mechanism as belay. If, figuratively speaking, “clouds are gathering” over the bet, you can manage to make a “fork” in live, thereby saving the attempt and rolling back one step. As mentioned above, the possibilities of insurance of classic express trains are much narrower.
So, if you are interested in the possibilities offered by express bets, multiplication of odds and all that, but you already gravitate towards serious betting, and not only to catching luck, think about the transition to “ladders”.
10. HIGHEST RATES
Long-term betting success must be based on mathematical calculations. If you win, but do not understand how, then it is too early to rejoice – this is only a temporary phenomenon. Such a mathematical understanding of the essence of the processes is also very valuable in the context of express bets, although they have little in common with classic professional betting. Above, we showed how the multiplication of the margin of each component of the express reduces the probability of its passing, which cannot but affect the distance result. Nevertheless, if you are to use express bets, then you need to do it mathematically competently, with the maximum profit for yourself.
- The point at this point is to use the highest possible odds.
- You have probably noticed that the quotes are different for the same outcomes in different bookmakers.
- Somewhere more profitable quotes are due to a relatively low margin, somewhere there is simply a local distortion for a specific match and market (in fact, a micro-surebet situation).
So, let’s compare what will happen if you put the express in one place, where the quotes of all components are higher by only 0.01. Express will be for 10 events.
- 1.31 * 1.21 * 1.41 * 1.51 * 1.31 * 1.21 * 1.41 * 1.51 * 1.31 * 1.21 = 18.05
Well, the press for the same outcomes, but from a different office, where everything is lower:
- 1.30 * 1.20 * 1.40 * 1.50 * 1.30 * 1.20 * 1.40 * 1.50 * 1.30 * 1.20 = 16.74