Predicting events in football matches requires many factors to be considered. Dozens of parameters pass in the field of view of experienced and professional betters. Some are more important, some are less significant, but everyone and everyone can have their own influence on the result, and therefore on the outcome of bets, the final profit at the end of the playing segment. One of the most influential and important factors is, of course, lineups when it comes to team sports. Football is the most popular betting object. So in this review, we will discuss the importance of line-up monitoring in the analysis and forecasting of this sport. Consider ways to track and account for trains. Here are examples of the most relevant and popular services, resources that allow you to monitor injuries, disqualifications, roster rotations for other reasons. Sure,
THE ROLE OF SQUAD ANALYSIS IN FOOTBALL PREDICTION
The overwhelming majority of novice betters are guilty of perceiving football teams as some kind of “abstract spherical objects in a vacuum.” That is, they look, form an opinion about a particular club based on past achievements, sometimes ten or twenty years ago, look at the statistics of games, and that’s all. After that, they believe that they have analyzed the state of affairs and are ready to give a confident forecast for the upcoming game. Actually, such predictions have an insignificantly low cross-country ability, which means that the player loses money instead of making money.
This superficial approach overlooks one of the main truths of sports analytics: people play football. Not even the names of people, not what they were 10 years ago, last season, or even a couple of rounds ago. It is people who play, in the state in which they are here and now. Even a genius can not enter the game and thereby ruin the result of the team, but to the heap and the rate on it. This is force majeure, with which you can and should be reconciled, covering losses at a distance. However, not taking into account the key factor, the local form of a specific team composition, is a terrible oversight that leads to the minus.
Beginners, on the other hand, put on the names of clubs, logos, colors of the form. The fact that on the field in a particular match in the shirts of Real, Barcelona, Liverpool, Bayern, came “young”, a mixed squad, this is often overlooked. At the same time, it is worth noting that the quotes in bookmakers will not change at all. As before, the TOP-club will be the favorite, although they play a one-and-a-half or even completely second, third line-up. The bookmaker knows that the players in their mass are blind, deaf and dumb. They will still carry money to the name, without delving into who will play there in these kits. With the same success, you can dress up a coach, massage therapists, the goalkeeper’s grandmother, the CEO’s dog, let them out on the field, and the “pops” will still be put on this “super-team” at the odds of 1.12. So don’t be like! Pay attention to team lineups as one of the main factors.
PROFESSIONAL WORK WITH FORMULATIONS
Knowing team lineups involves more than just getting a list of the names of 22 players for the next meeting. You need to be able to work with this data. That is why it is necessary to create a card index in paper or electronic form, which will contain the profiles of all the teams that the analyst is following. There should be recorded the approximate composition of the team in terms of links (goalkeepers, defense, defensive midfielders, attacking midfield, forwards). Naturally, the key players should be especially noted, the loss of which greatly degrades the quality. These can only be identified by watching games and analyzing post-match statistics. These will be leaders in terms of the number of tackles, sharpening and assists, accurate finishing shots.
Having received first the approximate, and then the exact line-up for the match, the bettor checks the list of losses with the line-up on the line. Losses can affect both quantity and quality. Two of the four main defenders can be eliminated. And let the best organizer of the defense line remain in the ranks, the quantitative losses will jeopardize the solidity of the defense. Bringing in two reservists, no matter how cool they are, is a blow to teamwork. So in such games one can consider a goal from opponents, of course, taking into account the difference in class and the potential of their attack. We have already touched on quality losses. Any team has from one to 3-4 performers, whose absence radically changes the game from a plus to a minus sign.
CONSIDERATION OF TEAM LINEUPS WHEN CHOOSING A FORECAST
Losses of players in different lanes adjust the forecast for attack and defense. It is quite obvious that the elimination of the main goalkeeper is a priori a blow to the defense. Even if the understudy is not lower in class, the defense is still more nervous with the new keeper. After all, the gatekeeper’s rapport with the defense is an important factor that breaks down with these substitutions. So the absence of the main goalkeeper is a reason to consider bets on the opponent’s goals, more on total.
Roughly the same logic applies to rotations in defense. The losses of central defenders are especially critical. Wing defenders, especially in five defenders, are less influential. As a rule, the teams have full-fledged replacements for the energy-intensive positions of the flank defenders working along the entire edge. Usually, quality wingers play on the flanks of the defense, and they are also capable of supporting attacks. If they fall out, they put up good full-backs, who also, or maybe even better, defend themselves, but they don’t support the attack so well. So, paradoxically, the loss of such nominally defensive flank players can knock down the attack. Naturally, in order to read and take into account such subtleties in the future forecast, one needs to be deeply in the subject.
Midfield is divided conditionally into defenders, cementing the center of the field; and creative attacking players. Losses of the first, respectively, are a blow to defense, the second – to attack, creating chances. Well, the attackers. A good finisher is scarcity in modern football. The loss of one main can completely deprive the attacking team of the implementation, although the number of serves and lumbago in the last third of the field may not be reduced by a percentage. So with losses in attack, it is better not to take the team’s victories, at least to insure with a zero handicap, at the maximum to bypass such games. Of course, the damage in the attacking center of the field, on the attacking flanks and in the line of scorers is a potential drawdown in performance. In such hands, they suddenly start to consider the total less. Well, or at least they are canceling the traditional rates for TB or ITB teams.